Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
