A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
